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2018 Real Estate Predictions from Kevin Budde at BofA

2018 Real Estate Predictions from Kevin Budde at BofA

2018 Real Estate Predictions from Kevin Budde at BofA California Specific – 2018 real estate In 2018 the California housing market is going to be much better than some may have thought in 2017. This month begins my 43rd year in the mortgage industry and while I may not be an economist I have experienced many ups and downs over the years. Since 1975 I have been through 3 major housing downturns (1980-1981, 1990-1994, 2007-2011) and I want to point out the most significant factors creating another good year for the California housing market.   Housing Markets Turn Down In Bad Economies, Not Good Ones We are going to have a strong economic year in California in 2018. California is having robust job gains and the unemployment rate is at the lowest level in 4 decades, 1979 being the last time it was this low – 4.6%. Since 2012 the California economy has grown faster than that of the US as a whole. Job gains are happening across most industries. Technology, Educational and Health Services, Leisure, Hospitality, Business Services, Manufacturing and Construction. All industries are showing gains in employment. With a tight labor market employees feel their jobs are secure and the possibility of pay increases. They also consume more goods, services and homes which in turn creates more jobs.   The New Tax Bill – Don’t Fear It The corporate tax cut to 21% is now in place along with lower individual tax rates and higher child care credits. Business owners and corporate executives make up a large portion of the high-end California home buyers. They will see...

Steven Thomas says, Call your REALTOR® – Zillow is not the answer

Orange County Housing Report: Get Home Values Online… SCARY! October 25, 2015 Steven’s insights provided by the RON BUCK GROUP Good Afternoon! Today’s sellers and buyers turn to the Internet to determine their home’s value but forget to look at the fine print. Online Home Valuation Tools: even though sellers and buyers turn to Internet sites to establish the property value of a home, it’s not even close to being accurate. Everything is on the Internet. Recipes, comparison shopping, product ratings, music, dating, news, financial tips, economic analysis, entertainment, medical information, every business and every person is now on the Internet. With access to so much information, sellers and buyers now feel empowered with the ability to go online to learn as much about the home selling and home buying process as they wish. They can search to their hearts content as everything is now seemingly at their fingertips. With this access comes the sense that sellers and buyers can control the process. They feel like they are in the driver’s seat. From home searches, to researching about the skillset of a REALTOR®, to looking at payment calculators, they can do a tremendous amount of research from the comfort of their homes. Zillow.com, REALTOR.com, Trulia.com, OCRegister.com, LATimes.com, YahooRealEstate.com, CNN.com, CNBC.com, etcetera, there are plenty of choices to learn more about the local, regional, and national real estate markets. There is a lot of great information available to real estate consumers to help in the process. Unfortunately, there is plenty of misinformation too. The number one real estate website is Zillow.com. The main purpose of the site is to determine...

Is There A Real Estate Bubble?

As a working Realtor® Ron Buck often hears from home buyers that have NOT purchased yet that there is a real estate bubble which will pop and when it comes down again they will buy. Is this true? In 2005 the OC Register said that prices had to go up because so many people were moving into Orange County and the demand was strong enough to see another 30% increase. Well, Ron Buck, and all of us, know that was wrong. But ever since then Ron Buck, Realtor’s crystal ball has been a little cloudy. Here are a few differences that Ron Buck sees. By 2005 the housing market had returned from the crash of the mid 90s. Ron Buck’s area. South Orange County, had been beaten up by a county bankruptcy, high interest rates, and layoffs in the space industry among other things. Ron Buck’s area had been way behind the bay area in prices and the market needed to rise. Home owners that had been under water once again had equity and there was a lot of pent up buyer demand. The same is true now. Then the mortgage industry came up with more “creative financing” to keep the fever burning and fuel the Wall Street craving for loans to package. The last two years of that bubble saw price increases which were fueled by zero down, 120% and neg-am mortgages. This resulted in many new home owners with no chance of gaining equity or even keeping there homes long term. What is the difference today? What is Ron Buck seeing? Real estate investors, cash buyers and...

HOME PRICE DISCREPANCIES IN LAGUNA NIGUEL

Home Price Discrepancies in Laguna Niguel If you are a potential home buyer or seller you probably have noticed a wide variance of prices, and a discrepancy within neighborhoods for the same types of homes. Every home is unique, so the price of one which has been updated should be considerably higher than one that is original. Also location and views play a large part. Remember we are in a rapidly changing market. Think of a “U” shaped curve. As foreclosures were increasing and prices were falling every sale was less than the last one. Now we are on the upward side of the curve and every sale is higher than the last. The low inventory, all-time low interest rates and high demand are launching us into a vertical market. Here is something else to keep in mind. While we are sure to see some short sales and foreclosures trickle on the market for the next three years, there are much fewer on the market now. Right now there are only 21 active condos for sale in Laguna Niguel, and they are ALL Standard Sales except one Short Sale. There are 66 condos in backup and pending status and about half of those are short sales. Detached homes are the same. There are currently 102 active detached homes of ALL prices. How many of those are distressed sales? – 1 short sale. There are 97 detached homes in escrow of which 13 are distressed sales. The good news is that many previously underwater home owners are no longer under water. I was evaluating a small neighborhood of detached homes...

California Real Estate Market Is Heating Up

Laguna Niguel Real Estate Market is Heating up Ron Buck, Realtor®, blogged several times in 2012 about the low housing inventory in Laguna Niguel. It is still the nemesis of home buyers today as well but also a blessing to the home sellers. Of course we are just now approaching the listing season. For reference, during the peak years of 2005 and 2006 we reached close to 450 active homes on the market. As of today we hit 117 active listings, up from 95 in January. After the national media declared a bottom to prices in March 2012, retail buyers decided it was a good time to buy. Investors were buying a year or more earlier. Summer brought us low inventory and multiple offers. Inventory declined in the fall because good homes got snapped up so quickly. Home prices went up from 5% to 15% by the end of the year depending on price and neighborhood. Most Realtors® I speak with think we are going to see another 15% appreciation in 2013. Ron Buck, Realtor, knows that these price increases started at the low end, as they always do, and are working their way up. As of today, Ron Buck, Laguna Niguel Realtor, reports that there are only two detached homes active below $500,000, and there are only 49 homes active between $500k and $1 million. Follow Ron Buck’s advice! Today buyers must be prepared, have solid financing, if not cash, and be quick. Oh yes, it also helps to use a sharp Buyers’ Agent, as Ron Buck, Orange County Realtor, who will properly advise you and write a...

Ron Buck, Realtor, Says Home Buyers Do NOT Take a Holiday Break!

Ron Buck, Realtor®, knows that Laguna Niguel home buyers have been as active as ever in the month of December. While the average family was celebrating, partying and visiting family, Ron Buck, Laguna Niguel Realtor, reveals that home buyers have managed to close escrow on 84 homes. Considering that there are only 90 homes for sale as of 12/29 this is quite a feat. Home buyers tell Ron Buck, Realtor, that they still want to take advantage of the low interest rates and get a property before the prices rebound even more. It is still true that 33% of all home sales in Orange County are ALL CASH. These folks could be investors, retirees or first time buyers that are being financed by parents. Ron Buck, Realtor, got a call today from a frustrated Realtor who said that she has made 15 offers on properties for her 20%-down home buyer and has not been able to secure a property due to multiple offers and cash buyers. Right before Christmas Ron Buck, Realtor, put a small detached home on the market for $475K and in three days got two written cash offers and another verbal. Attached properties: Currently 24 active and only 3 of these are distressed properties. There are a total of 84 properties in backup or pending status and 34 have closed so far this month. No wonder it is so difficult to get into escrow on a condo. Also considering that some of the properties are overpriced, Ron Buck, Realtor, says there is only about two weeks supply. Detached properties: Currently there are 66 active detached properties...